Innofactor’s Q2 profitability was weak, although mostly due to one-offs. The profitability guidance currently appears challenging due to Q2, but we continue to expect rather good H2 figures.
Innofactor’s Q2 profitability was weak, although mostly due to one-offs. The profitability guidance currently appears challenging due to Q2, but we continue to expect rather good H2 figures.
Weak profitability driven by legal expenses
Innofactor reported Q2 results that fell short of our estimates on net sales development and profitability was clearly below expectations. Net sales declined 1.1% to EUR 19.9m (Evli EUR 20.9m), with weak development in Denmark having a clear impact as net sales still grew in Finland and Norway. EBITDA amounted to EUR 0.6m (Evli EUR 2.1m), affected by legal expenses of EUR 0.75m arising from arbitration proceedings relating to the Lumagate acquisition, along with some additional costs relating to reduction of personnel in Sweden. Relative profitability was despite this still on the weaker side. The order backlog declined 8.9% y/y but grew by 2.2% q/q to EUR 70.4m.
Profitability guidance looking challenging
With the weaker Q2, Innofactor in our view faces an uphill battle to achieve the profitability guidance for 2024, currently lagging behind EUR 1m in EBITDA. Innofactor continues to face headwinds from the market demand situation, with the outlook still fairly cautious. With the limited order backlog growth along with the comparison period figures at rather good levels and the weakness in Denmark, on our revised estimates we expect 2024 EBITDA (Evli EUR 8.3m, prev. 9.8m) to fall short of 2023, although with cost adaptation measures providing some leeway, we expect slight y/y improvement in H2. Excluding the legal expenses our 2024 EBITDA estimate is on par with 2023.
BUY with a target price of EUR 1.4 (1.6)
On our estimates 2024 P/E (excl. one-offs) is at a rather low 9.5x. The faced challenges justify lower valuation levels, but with the majority of the business still continuing to grow at at least decent profitability levels, as well as the main weakness currently being Denmark (accounting for only 1% of H1/24 net sales), the valuation levels appear overly cautious. On our revised estimates we lower our TP to EUR 1.4 (EUR 1.6), BUY-rating intact.
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